The exponential increase of COVID-19 across the world during 2020 has presented an unprecedented health threat, requiring a massive international response with large-scale deployment of human and capital resources. Future efforts to mitigate emerging disease outbreaks would benefit greatly from effective vaccines that could be stockpiled in advance or rapidly manufactured during outbreak response. What is urgently needed to maximize the use of vaccines are quantitative predictions of vaccine demands to mitigate the severe consequences of the next big pandemic.
Here, we estimate vaccine demand for stockpiling and outbreak response for high priority pathogens using a tractable infectious disease modeling approach.
Estimation of emergence events based on envirnomental processes and human-wildlife interactions.
Prediction of disease dynamics in households and healthcare setting within individual communities connected by human mobility.
Estimation of vaccine stockpile demand under different vaccination and operational scenarios.
Nipah is an emerging zoonotic pathogen that causes a range of illness from asymptomatic infection to acute respiratory illness and fatal encephalitis.
Human-to-human transmission of Nipah has been most clearly demonstrated for the outbreaks having occurred in India and Bangladesh, and thus we focus our vaccine demand estimation in those countries.
Below, our estimates for Nipah vaccine demand and geographical extent can be explored under different epidemiological, social and operational scenarios.
Nipah Model details:
- The model features presented for exploration are selected based on a sensitivity analysis of our mathematical model to identify those features which are significantly predict the outcomes (vaccine doses, geographical extent).
- When a model feature is selected for exploration, the estimates include variability in all other model features.
- The estimates above are based on emergence of Nipah in one of ten high-risk locations within India and Bangladesh.
Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is caused by a coronavirus and is an emerging zoonotic disease. MERS causes a range of illness from asymptomatic infection to acute respiratory illness.
The emergence and transmission of MERS has largely been demonstrated in the countries of the Middle East and East Africa, and thus we focus our vaccine demand estimation in those countries.
Below, our estimates for MERS vaccine demand and geographical extent can be explored under different epidemiological, social and operational scenarios.
MERS Model Details:
- The model features presented for exploration are selected based on a sensitivity analysis of our mathematical model to identify those features which are significantly predict the outcomes (vaccine doses, geographical extent).
- When a model feature is selected for exploration, the estimates include variability in all other model features.
- The estimates above are based on emergence of MERS in one of ten high-risk locations in the Arabian peninsula.